Bitcoin Update as of September 26th: Short-term Scenarios
- Martin Low
- a few seconds ago
- 4 min read
As one can see, Bitcoin is experiencing a major dip after hovering between $114,000 and $115,0000 for the rest of the Month. Dovish statements by the Federal Reserve including their quarter basis point interest reduction had investors hopeful. Now we have a slight downturn. What will the next month hold for Bitcoin holders and futures investors? Let's take a look:
Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
The price is 109398.0 USD currently with a change of -2007.00 USD (-0.02%) from the previous close.
The intraday high is 111735.0 USD and the intraday low is 108741.0 USD.
I should start with a caveat: no indicator can guarantee what will happen. They are tools to help assess probabilities and scenarios. With that in mind, here’s what the current data suggests for
Bitcoin over the rest of September and into October — especially via Bollinger Bands and some other commonly used indicators like RSI, MACD, and trend / volatility measures.
What Bollinger Bands Are Saying Now
Bitcoin’s weekly Bollinger Bands are at record-tight compression. Analysts are pointing out that the bands have “squeezed” more narrowly than ever before. (Cointelegraph)
Historically, such compressions tend to precede volatility expansions or large moves (either up or down). (CoinMarketCap)
On the daily chart, the distance between the upper and lower bands has narrowed to levels among the tightest in the current bull cycle (some reports around ~7.7 %) (crypto.news)
When the bands “open up” after a squeeze, price often moves rapidly toward or beyond one of the outer bands. (Cointelegraph)
The broad takeaway: we’re in an uneasy calm before a likely storm. The market is consolidating, volatility compressed, and many are watching for a breakout (either upwards or downwards).
What Other Indicators & Market Structure Suggest
To help sense which direction might be more probable (bullish or bearish), it helps to layer on other indicators and structural observations:
Indicator / Feature | Current / Recent Behavior | Interpretation / What It Suggests |
RSI (Relative Strength Index) | Generally in neutral territory; not clearly overbought or oversold in recent sessions. (AInvest) | Leaves room for either direction. A strong breakout might push RSI strongly up (if bullish) or down (if bearish). |
MACD / Momentum Measures | Some analysts see positive divergence building or “momentum building behind the scenes.” (AInvest) | Could favor the upside if momentum “catches” the breakout. |
Trend / Price Structure | Bitcoin has had strong upward runs earlier this year; recent pullbacks / consolidations have held some support zones. (Medium) | In a “bullish regime,” consolidation implies potential continuation, unless key support fails. |
Risk / Bearish Signals | Some analysts warn that failure to break upward and a break below the lower band or key support zones could usher in steeper downside. (Cointelegraph) | A downside breakout (if momentum shifts) is not off the table. |
Seasonality / Historical Behavior | October is often seen in crypto circles as a seasonally favorable month (“Uptober”). (Cointelegraph) | This gives a slight “tilt” to bullish expectations, though it’s not deterministic. |
Scenarios for Late September to Early October
Given the above, here are some plausible scenarios and what they might look like in terms of how Bollinger Bands and other indicators behave:
Scenario A: Bullish Breakout
The bands expand upward as volatility returns. The upper Bollinger Band becomes the “guide” or runway for price as it travels upward.
Price breaches and sustains above the upper band; RSI moves into overbought territory; MACD stays bullish or shows strong separation.
Support becomes the “middle band” or the prior upper band.
The move might accelerate quickly (a “blow-off” style move) if volume confirms the breakout.
Scenario B: Sideways Consolidation / Choppy Action
The bands may widen modestly but not decisively, and price oscillates between the bands.
Indicators like RSI and MACD move back and forth, without decisive confirmation.
The middle band (the moving average) acts as a magnet, and price tests both the upper and lower bands without a clear directional conviction.
Scenario C: Bearish Breakout / Pullback
The bands expand downward; price breaks below the lower band or fails to hold mid / lower support zones.
RSI dips toward oversold; MACD turns negative.
The lower band becomes the “target” or guide downward; recovery attempts may be weak or met with resistance.
My Best Estimate (with Risks)
Judging by the extreme compression of Bollinger Bands at multiple timeframes, the odds favor a volatility expansion sometime in late September or early October. Given the structural bullish environment, I’d lean modestly bullish for an upside breakout as the base case — but I keep a close eye on the downside as the alternate scenario.
So, in short:
The rest of September is likely to remain in consolidation / squeeze mode, with price stuck in a narrowing range as the bands stay tight.
By early to mid-October, I expect one of two things: (1) a decisive upward move that carries into the quarter, or (2) a breakdown if momentum is weak — but I believe the upward move is slightly more probable given the macro / trend context.
Therefore we are likely to see more consolidation until early to mid October at which time Bitcoin will head either up or down, probably quite decisively.
