Bitcoin (BTC) Outlook for June 30, 2025

I hope you all bought the dip with your chips around 9:17 Eastern Standard Time after the liquidity sweep. Price dipped below recent local lows (liquidity grab), then sharply rebounded. Time on all charts is UTC.

This is often a strong bullish signal because it flushes out weak longs and traps shorts.

Machine Learning MA Envelope: After the sweep, price is moving back inside the upper half of the band, indicating momentum is favoring an upward push.

Machine Learning MA Envelope: After the sweep, price is moving back inside the upper half of the band, indicating momentum is favoring an upward push.

Bitcoin RSI:

Your RSI was oversold at the sweep point and is now climbing. It is currently around 81, which is high but signals strong momentum. You should watch for divergence signs later today.

Bitcoin Context from Other Charts

S and P 500 (SPX) and VIX

• SPX remains strong overall, up about 0.26 percent today.

• VIX rose earlier but is stabilizing near 17. A calm or dropping VIX generally supports risk-on sentiment, which favors BTC.

SPX remains strong overall, up about 0.26 percent today.

VIX rose earlier but is stabilizing near 17. A calm or dropping VIX generally supports risk-on sentiment, which favors BTC.

US Dollar Index (DXY)

DXY is rebounding but still under resistance. If it stalls or reverses lower, it typically supports upward moves in BTC.

DXY is rebounding but still under resistance. If it stalls or reverses lower, it typically supports upward moves in BTC.

Gold and Oil

• Gold is slightly up around 0.21 percent but overall in a downtrend recently, which could signal money moving toward risk assets.

• Oil is moving sideways and does not give a strong correlation signal today.

Gold is slightly up around 0.21 percent but overall in a downtrend recently, which could signal money moving toward risk assets.

Oil is moving sideways and does not give a strong correlation signal today. Consolidation time!

Key Intraday Levels for BTC

• Immediate resistance is around $108,600 to $109,000 (recent swing highs after the sweep).

• Support zone is around $107,000 (your sweep entry zone). This is a good invalidation level if price breaks down.

• Extension target: If momentum continues, a possible move to $109,500 to $110,000 during the day.

Risk Management and Plan

• If day trading, watch for signs of exhaustion (RSI divergence, slowing momentum) around $108,600 to $109,000.

• If Bitcoin should go over $113,000 for a strong breakout, we will be in the Banana Zone of reaching new all-time-highs. Watch like a hawk so you can sell when your overbought indicator reaches 100%.

• Consider trailing stops to protect gains, for example first below $107,800 and then move higher as price rises.

• Be cautious if DXY breaks above $9750 decisively since that could pressure BTC.

Summary

• Bias: Bullish for the day assuming no macro shocks from DXY or equities reversal.

• Targets: $108,600 to $109,500 range.

• Risk trigger: Below 107,000, consider exit or reevaluate.

• Banana Zone: a new all-time-high above $113,000.

✅ Sentiment and Market Context

• Overall, Bitcoin sentiment is slightly positive today, supported by risk-on appetite in equities and relatively stable macro indicators.

• The recent liquidity sweep you traded aligns with broader technical setups where traders expect short squeezes or aggressive rebounds.

📰 Key Headlines

1. "Bitcoin freezes over 100,000 as OG whales dump on Wall Street"
   

   • Some large early investors (so-called OG whales) have sold positions, triggering volatility yesterday. However, this created a liquidity flush that is now fueling a potential rebound.
     

2. "Stablecoin metrics show Bitcoin rally may be far from over"
   

   • Data shows stablecoin inflows into exchanges are increasing, suggesting new capital is ready to deploy into BTC, a bullish sign for upcoming sessions.
     

3. "Top 4 US economic indicators with crypto implications this week"
   

   • The focus is on US labor data and potential rate-related comments, which can affect the dollar and indirectly Bitcoin. For today, there is no direct major economic catalyst threatening BTC in the short term.
     

4. "Record Q2, monthly close next?"
   

   • Analysts highlight that Bitcoin could close Q2 at a record high for the year, maintaining upward momentum and attracting institutional attention.
     

⚡ On-chain and Technical Observations

• Funding rates have normalized, suggesting reduced excessive leverage.

• Exchange balances continue to decline, showing investors are holding rather than selling.

• Large transactions (whale activity) suggest accumulation on dips.
  

💡 Key Takeaway for Today

• Short-term outlook is cautiously bullish, supported by technical rebound and on-chain signals.

• The market may remain sensitive to macro surprises (like sudden DXY strength or equities sell-off), but today’s flow favors higher BTC levels if risk appetite stays.

📈 Order Book Data (Liquidity and Spot Flow)

• Liquidity Sweep ConfirmationThe strong bounce you saw confirms that a large amount of stop orders and liquidity was cleared below 107000.

• Current Book Structure

  • Strong buy walls around 107000 to 107200, supporting your entry zone as a key support.

  • Sell orders start clustering from 108600 to 109200, confirming that area as the next major resistance zone intraday.

• Spot vs Derivatives FlowSpot market buys are outweighing sells since the sweep, which generally signals real demand rather than just leverage-driven moves.

💰 Funding Rates (Futures Market Sentiment)

• Funding rates have turned slightly positive again after the sweep but remain moderate.

• This suggests that although some traders have repositioned long, the market is not excessively overheated, reducing immediate squeeze risk.

• Stable funding supports potential for a slow grind higher today rather than sharp reversals.

🔎 On-Chain Metrics

• Exchange BalancesContinues trending down, meaning fewer coins are available to be sold on exchanges. This is a longer-term bullish signal.

• Stablecoin Supply on ExchangesIncreasing stablecoin balances suggest new sidelined capital is prepared to enter, supporting demand during dips.

• Large Transfers and Whale AccumulationSeveral large addresses accumulated during the sweep, which often indicates institutional or large long-term players stepping in.

• Network ActivityActive addresses and transaction volume have been steadily rising this week, which confirms broader usage and engagement.
  

✅ Key Points for Your Trades

• Order book shows strong support below your entry and confirms your risk level around 107000.

• Funding rates indicate no dangerous overcrowding on the long side for now.

• On-chain data supports an upward bias in the medium term, reinforcing today’s rebound strength.
  

⚖️ Conclusion

Things are looking up in the World of Bitcoin. Keep betting with the bulls, but watch out for those bears!

May the odds be ever in your favor!